Political Drama in French Cameroon Won’t Deter Ambazonia’s Fight for Freedom
By Mbah Godlove
As rumors about the possible death of French Cameroon’s long-time president, Paul Biya, swirl, Ambazonians remain focused on their independence struggle, now in its eighth year. The recent speculation of a power vacuum in Yaoundé has dominated both social and mainstream media, raising questions about Biya’s whereabouts after nearly 50 days out of the public eye. The uncertainty has led to discussions about the potential for a power struggle that could plunge French Cameroon into deeper crisis if the president is indeed incapacitated.
Power Struggle Looming in Yaoundé?
President Paul Biya, who has ruled Cameroon since 1982, is one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders. His prolonged absence has fueled rumors of his death, leaving many to speculate about what a transition could look like in a country where political power has remained tightly centralized. The potential instability of a transition raises the specter of a power struggle among Cameroon’s political elite, with fears that the army could play a decisive role in shaping the outcome. This uncertainty could escalate tensions in both French-speaking Cameroon and the contested English-speaking regions, where the Ambazonian independence movement has been battling for autonomy.
With Biya’s possible death, the absence of a clear succession plan could lead to internal divisions within the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM). Many analysts believe this could destabilize the country, as different factions vie for control. In such a scenario, the military could step in as a key player, potentially enforcing a temporary rule or backing a chosen successor. However, any transition is likely to be fraught with challenges, including the risk of violent confrontations in Yaoundé and beyond.
What It Means for Ambazonia’s Struggle
While the political drama in Yaoundé captures headlines, Ambazonians are concentrating on their ongoing struggle for independence from what they call a “colonial” regime. The conflict, which began as peaceful protests against marginalization in 2016, quickly escalated into a full-blown armed struggle, with separatists in the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon declaring the independent state of Ambazonia. Since then, the conflict has displaced over 700,000 people, with tens of thousands seeking refuge in Nigeria, and has led to thousands of deaths, including civilians, military personnel, and separatist fighters.
For many Ambazonians, the speculation around Biya’s potential death or absence from power is seen as a possible turning point—but not one that changes their strategic focus. Leaders of the independence movement argue that Biya’s regime was never solely about the president but rather a broader system of centralized power and oppression. Therefore, even if Biya were to die, Ambazonian leaders believe that the struggle must continue against what they view as the colonial structures embedded within the Cameroonian state.
“If the regime collapses after Biya, it doesn’t automatically mean freedom for Ambazonia,” said a senior official of the Ambazonia Interim Government. “We have to continue our fight, with or without Biya, because the colonial system in place will seek to replace him with another dictator.”
Potential Escalation of Conflict
Amidst the uncertainty, the situation in the North-West and South-West regions remains tense. Ambazonian fighters have vowed to increase pressure on government positions and colonial symbols if a power vacuum emerges in Yaoundé. The prospect of Paul Biya’s death or an unstable transition could embolden separatist groups to intensify their attacks, seeing it as an opportunity to make strategic gains in their quest for independence. Ambazonian activists have already called for their supporters to prepare for possible changes, urging unity and resolve to “kick away the collapsing regime” and take advantage of any internal distractions within the central government.
Additionally, if a power struggle erupts in Yaoundé, it could divert the Cameroonian military’s attention from its operations in the Anglophone regions. This might create a strategic opening for Ambazonian forces to advance or consolidate their positions. However, such an opening could also come with risks, as a new leadership in Yaoundé might attempt to assert its strength by cracking down more harshly on the independence movement to prove its authority.
International Reactions and Implications
The unfolding events in Cameroon are also closely monitored by the international community, particularly Nigeria, which shares a porous border with the troubled Anglophone regions. Nigeria has been caught in a difficult position, balancing diplomatic relations with Cameroon while facing criticism over the controversial 2018 extradition of Ambazonian leaders like Sisiku Ayuk Tabe, who remain in detention in Yaoundé. Should a power transition in Cameroon become turbulent, Nigeria may face new waves of refugees fleeing conflict zones, complicating its own security challenges in the north-eastern region.
Western countries, especially France, which has historically supported Biya’s regime, are also watching the situation closely. A political crisis in Cameroon could destabilize one of France’s key allies in Central Africa, potentially affecting regional stability and influencing the policies of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). However, many Ambazonians hope that the possible power shift in Yaoundé might encourage more international scrutiny of human rights abuses in the Anglophone regions and open new avenues for dialogue or negotiation.
Focus on Unity and Resilience
Despite the political uncertainty in Yaoundé, the Ambazonian leadership remains clear in its message: now is not the time for distraction. They urge their supporters to remain vigilant and united in their quest for independence. “We cannot allow rumors about Yaoundé to derail our focus,” said an activist based in the diaspora. “This is the moment to act as one, to strengthen our determination, and to continue fighting for our freedom.”
As Cameroon faces a potential crossroads, the Anglophone regions see an opportunity but are also wary of what a chaotic transition in Yaoundé might mean for their struggle. For the people of Ambazonia, independence remains the ultimate goal, regardless of who holds power in the capital.
