OPINION & ANALYSIS
By Dr. Marcelius Atanga
Former President, University of Buea Students’ Union (UBSU)
Barely four weeks after President Paul Biya came home from the longest foreign stay of his nearly 44-year rule, reports are circulating on diaspora channels that the 93-year-old has quietly slipped back to Europe. As of this writing, no credible outlet has confirmed it. Neither the presidency in Yaoundé nor any major African or European newsroom has reported a new departure. But the fact that a whole people must once again guess where their head of state is matters as much as the rumor itself.
The record
Biya left Yaoundé on June 7 for what his office called a short private stay and returned from Geneva on August 20, after 73 days.[1] That far surpassed his previous record of 42 consecutive days abroad, set in 2024, when the regime went as far as banning media discussion of his health.[2] Jeune Afrique reported that he was treated in a private Geneva clinic after falling ill at the May 20 National Day reception; the communication minister denied any hospitalization.[3]
In its September 6 report, Afrik.com recorded one public appearance since his return, on August 22, to receive the women’s football champions. The outlet reported no subsequent photograph, reception or filmed meeting as of that date, although decrees were signed on August 31. It placed his last recorded meeting with a foreign dignitary on May 7.[4]
A government frozen
In his end-of-year address Biya promised significant changes to the executive, yet the last major government reorganization dates back to January 4, 2019.[5] Nearly a year after his disputed re-election, no new government has been appointed.[6] A new cabinet normally follows a presidential election. This time none has come.
On April 4, parliament voted 200 to 18 to create a vice-presidency whose holder is appointed and dismissed solely by the president.[7] The vice-president now stands first in the line of succession, ahead of the president of the Senate.[8] Five months later, the post is still empty. Published accounts differ over how a vacancy would be handled while the vice-presidency remains empty.[9] Carnegie describes a possible Constitutional Council declaration followed by a Senate-led interim presidency.[2] The amendment was meant to settle the succession; leaving the post unfilled instead deepens uncertainty over how a transition would work in practice.
The war for the vice-presidency
Whoever is named vice-president is widely assumed to be the next president of La République du Cameroun. The contest has turned ugly.
- Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, Secretary-General of the Presidency. In office since 2011, he holds signing authority on the president’s behalf and has the strong backing of the first lady. Many analysts call him the de facto head of government.[2]
- Franck Biya, the president’s eldest son. On June 12, five days after his father left for Geneva, someone tried to have state broadcaster CRTV read out decrees naming him vice-president along with a new government. The decrees were fake.[10]
- Chantal Biya, the first lady. The Africa Report describes her conflict with Franck Biya as fierce enough to tear away the secrecy that once surrounded the presidential family.[11]
- Samuel Mvondo Ayolo and Oswald Baboké, director and deputy director of the Civil Cabinet. Jeune Afrique reported that Ngoh Ngoh planned to force both men out. Camer.be reports that, since late June, Baboké has been questioned by the Special Criminal Court in inquiries involving the fake decree and alleged irregularities in the gold sector.[12] These reported inquiries do not establish guilt.
- Louis-Paul Motazé, finance minister, and Paul Atanga Nji, minister of territorial administration. A Carnegie analysis judges them more likely to shape the succession bargain than to win the post themselves.[2] Africa Confidential places Motazé and Prime Minister Joseph Dion Ngute in a camp opposed to Ngoh Ngoh and the president’s chief bodyguard.[13]
- Joseph Beti Assomo, minister in charge of defense since 2015, whose position gives him weight in any transition.[14]
- Philémon Yang, former prime minister, mentioned as a possible compromise candidate.[2]
Rumor fills the silence
With so little official information, stories have spread that Biya died years ago and that a double or “clone” now appears in his place. No credible evidence supports those claims. Public records show that he took the oath before parliament in November 2025, was photographed at the papal mass in Yaoundé on April 18, 2026,[15] and was filmed at the palace in August.[4] But a regime that once banned discussion of the president’s health[2] has left its own people with little except rumor. When a state treats the whereabouts of its leader as a secret, it should not be surprised that citizens stop believing anything it says.
A country bleeding, and Ambazonia carrying the heaviest load
Official results of the October 2025 election gave Biya 53.66 percent against 35.19 percent for Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who claimed victory.[16] Reuters, citing UN sources, reported 48 people killed by security forces during the protests that followed, and opposition figure Anicet Ekane died in custody.[17] Tchiroma fled to The Gambia.[18]
In Ambazonia, the war with the forces of La République du Cameroun is in its ninth year. OCHA reported that in the first quarter of 2026 clashes continued across most divisions, with villages emptied and armed groups imposing ghost towns and “liberation taxes.”[19] The conflict has displaced more than 580,000 people inside the territory and pushed over 76,000 into Nigeria.[20] Humanitarian needs remain immense: OCHA tracks the regional emergency,[21] while the European Commission estimates that 1.2 million people in the North-West and South-West need assistance in 2026.[20] The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect warns that civilians face an imminent risk of atrocity crimes.[22] By May, relief agencies had received only 20 percent of the funding they need.[23]
What the world is saying
Very little. The UN Secretary-General voiced deep concern over post-election violence and called for an impartial investigation.[24] The European Union urged restraint and the release of those arbitrarily detained.[25] FIDH and the World Organisation Against Torture called on the UN, the African Union and the EU to apply sustained pressure on Yaoundé.[26] Tchiroma has filed criminal complaints in Switzerland over the repression.[27] In Geneva, cantonal lawmaker Sylvain Thévoz has at one point put an urgent written question to the Council of State about the cost and harm of the president’s repeated stays; the date of that intervention could not be confirmed at the time of writing.[28] None of this has changed anything in Yaoundé so far.
What could change, and how soon
Three things could break the stalemate: a vice-presidential appointment that either settles the succession or starts an open fight; a health event that tests an untested constitution; or renewed mobilization. Tchiroma announced in August an “imminent” return from exile.[29] Legislative and municipal elections have been pushed to 2027.[30] The Francophone opposition remains divided and has failed to capitalize on the president’s absence.[31]
What Ambazonia’s leaders should do now
A transition in Yaoundé is coming, whether by decree, by biology or by force of events. It may open a door for Ambazonia or it may bring a harder hand. The movement cannot afford to be caught unprepared. Since 2019 the leadership has been split, with rival claimants to the presidency of the Interim Government and none of them exercising effective authority over all the groups on the ground.[32] That is the first thing a new power in Yaoundé, and every foreign capital, will look at. The following are this writer’s recommendations.
- Close the leadership dispute. Agree on one mandated platform, even a temporary one, that can speak and sign for Ambazonia. A divided movement will be ignored or played against itself the day talks become possible.
- Have the negotiating file ready. Name a negotiating team now. Put in writing the minimum demands, the acceptable mediators and venue, and the position on an internationally supervised referendum, so the movement responds within hours, not months.
- Put civilian protection first. Make and keep public commitments on schools, health workers, humanitarian access and an end to kidnapping and forced levies. Credibility with the world, and with our own people, is the movement’s strongest asset.
- Brief the capitals before the event. Washington, London, Brussels, Abuja, the African Union and the United Nations should already hold a short, factual Ambazonian brief on what a transition in Yaoundé means and what Ambazonia asks for.
- Document everything. Keep a verified, dated record of abuses by all sides, to the standard a court or a UN inquiry would accept. Accountability will be on the table in any settlement.
- Plan for the humanitarian shock. A contested transition could bring new displacement. Coordinate now with churches, relief agencies and host communities in Nigeria on shelter, food and medical care.
- Enforce communication discipline. Verify before broadcasting. One false report, repeated by our own channels, costs more credibility than ten true ones earn.
- Open channels to every likely successor and to the Francophone opposition. Whoever emerges in Yaoundé will need to end this war. They should know in advance whom to call and what the terms are.
- Protect the diaspora’s standing. Act within the laws of host countries, keep finances transparent, and avoid anything that lets Yaoundé paint the cause as criminal.
A word to the community
This is a time bomb, and it calls for close attention and calm. Treat unverified reports as unverified. Be careful about travel, transactions and public statements in tense areas. And keep asking the question the authorities in Yaoundé have not answered: who is governing La République du Cameroun, and who will answer for Ambazonia when he is gone?
About the author
Dr. Marcelius Atanga is a Cameroonian-born writer and advocate based in Waldorf, Maryland, and a former president of the University of Buea Students’ Union. He holds a PhD. His commentary has appeared in The Independentist News, BaretaNews and Hilltop Voices.
This guest opinion reflects the author’s views. Edited for clarity and house style; all 32 submitted references are retained.
References
Numbers in square brackets in the text refer to the sources below, listed in order of first appearance. All links were accessed on 17-21 September 2026.
[1] France 24 / AFP, “Cameroon’s 93-year-old President Paul Biya returns after months-long stay abroad,” 20 Aug 2026. https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20260820-cameroon-93-year-old-president-paul-biya-returns-after-months-long-absence
[2] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Cameroon’s President Went Abroad for Months. His Return Brought More Questions Than Answers,” Sept 2026. https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/09/cameroon-biya-absence-succession
[3] Jeune Afrique, “Paul Biya en Suisse : coulisses d’un nouveau séjour médical du président camerounais,” 16-17 June 2026. https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1804591/politique/paul-biya-en-suisse-coulisses-dun-nouveau-sejour-medical-du-president-camerounais/
[4] Afrik.com, “Cameroun : Paul Biya de nouveau invisible depuis la réception des Lionnes,” Sept 2026. https://www.afrik.com/cameroun-paul-biya-de-nouveau-invisible-depuis-la-reception-des-lionnes
[5] Pan African Visions, “President Paul Biya Leaves for Europe as Cameroonians Await New Government,” 7 June 2026. https://panafricanvisions.com/2026/06/president-paul-biya-leaves-for-europe-as-cameroonians-await-new-government/
[6] Reuters via Polity, “Cameroon’s ruling party meets as Biya’s long absence draws criticism,” 22 July 2026. https://www.polity.org.za/article/cameroons-ruling-party-meets-as-biyas-long-absence-draws-criticism-2026-07-22
[7] Africa Confidential, Cameroon country page (article of 7 April 2026 on the vice-presidency amendment). https://www.africa-confidential.com/browse-by-country/id/7/CAMEROON
[8] Mimi Mefo Info (MMI News), post on MP Jean Michel Nintcheu’s call to the Constitutional Council, 17 July 2026. https://x.com/MimiMefoInfo/status/2078193391175667744
[9] The Rio Times, “Africa Intelligence Brief – Friday, September 4, 2026.” https://www.riotimesonline.com/africa-intelligence-brief-friday-september-4-2026/
[10] Africa Confidential, Franck Emmanuel Biya profile page. https://www.africa-confidential.com/profile/id/5065/franck-biya
[11] The Africa Report, “Cameroon: Franck and Chantal Biya in ruthless succession war,” 9 June 2026. https://www.theafricareport.com/421258/cameroon-franck-and-chantal-biya-in-ruthless-succession-war/
[12] Camer.be, “Capitaine Effoudou accuse Ngoh Ngoh : le clan Baboke riposte,” 1 Aug 2026. https://www.camer.be/94088/39:1/serail
[13] People & Politics, citing Africa Confidential, “Cabal of 93-Year-Old Biya… Plot Son’s Succession,” 2 June 2026. https://www.peopleandpolitics.net/2026/06/02/cabal-of-93-year-old-biya-44-years-as-cameroun-president-plot-sons-succession/
[14] Wikipedia, “Joseph Beti Assomo.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Beti_Assomo
[15] The Africa Report, “Paul Biya’s record 50-day stay in Switzerland fuels health rumours,” 29 July 2026 (photo record of the 18 April 2026 papal mass in Yaoundé). https://www.theafricareport.com/426186/paul-biyas-record-50-day-stay-in-switzerland-fuels-health-rumours/
[16] UPI via Yahoo News, “Paul Biya, 92, elected president in Cameroon; challenger claims win,” 27 Oct 2025. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/paul-biya-92-elected-president-142816938.html
[17] Wikipedia, “2025 Cameroonian protests” (citing Reuters, 4 Nov 2025, on the UN-source death toll). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_protests
[18] Wikipedia, “2025 in Cameroon.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_in_Cameroon
[19] UN OCHA, “Cameroon: North-West and South-West Situation Report No. 85, 1 January to 31 March 2026.” https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/cameroon/cameroon-north-west-and-south-west-situation-report-no85-1-january-31-march-2026
[20] European Commission, Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, “Cameroon,” April 2026. https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/africa/cameroon_en
[21] UN OCHA, “Cameroon” country page, 2026. https://www.unocha.org/cameroon
[22] Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, “Cameroon,” 16 March 2026. https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/cameroon/
[23] Pan African Visions, “2.9 Million Cameroonians Need Humanitarian Aid, OCHA Warns,” 15 May 2026. https://panafricanvisions.com/2026/05/2-9-million-cameroonians-need-humanitarian-aid-ocha-warns/
[24] United Nations, “Statement attributable to the Secretary-General – on Cameroon’s presidential election,” 28 Oct 2025. https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statements/2025-10-28/statement-attributable-the-secretary-general-cameroons-presidential-election
[25] Arab News / AFP, “EU urges ‘restraint’ after violent repression of protests in Cameroon,” 28 Oct 2025. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2620565/world
[26] FIDH / OMCT, “Cameroon: Excessive use of force must stop amid post-election protests,” 4 Nov 2025. https://www.fidh.org/en/region/Africa/cameroon/cameroon-excessive-use-of-force-must-stop-amid-post-election-protests
[27] 237 Actu, news roundup noting Issa Tchiroma Bakary’s two criminal complaints filed in Switzerland, 13 July 2026. https://237actu.com/cameroun-en-sejour-a-geneve-le-president-paul-biya-pourrait-retourner-a-yaounde-ce-dimanche/
[28] Journal du Cameroun, “À Genève, les séjours onéreux du président Paul Biya embarrassent.” Undated; publication date not confirmed. https://fr.journalducameroun.com/a-geneve-les-sejours-onereux-du-president-paul-biya-embarrassent/
[29] Afrique Confidentielle, “Cameroun : l’absence de Biya et le retour annoncé de Tchiroma exposent un vide constitutionnel,” 13 Aug 2026. https://afriqueconfidentielle.com/fr/afrique/cameroun-labsence-de-biya-et-le-retour-annonce-de-tchiroma-exposent-un-vide-constitutionnel/
[30] Stopblablacam, “Paul Biya en Europe : un séjour privé sur fond d’attentes politiques à Yaoundé,” 8 June 2026. https://www.stopblablacam.com/politique/0806-16284-paul-biya-en-europe-un-sejour-prive-sur-fond-d-attentes-politiques-a-yaounde
[31] Cameroon Intelligence Report, “Tchiroma, Akere, Kamto: an opposition that still cannot seize the moment,” 30 July 2026. https://www.cameroonintelligencereport.com/tchiroma-akere-kamto-an-opposition-that-still-cannot-seize-the-moment/
[32] Wikipedia, “Ambazonian leadership crisis” and “President of Ambazonia.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambazonian_leadership_crisis
