Southern Cameroons Revolution Metamorphosed from a Crisis to a Conflict; What Implications for the future?

The Southern Cameroons revolution, based on international security standards and classification of such situations has morphed from a “Crisis” to a “conflict”, with the attendant consequences of this transition expected to follow as the situation degenerate. This present shift aligns with an analysis made by Comrade Tapang Ivo Tanku (General Ivo), in November, 2017 on the dichotomy between the Amba revolution as a “crisis” and a conflict”

General Ivo, a Fulbright Scholar, Security Expert and Southern Cameroons Activist, had argued from a scholarly and empirically proven perspective, using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and Correlates of War (COW), that;
The fight for freedom from La Repulique du Cameroun (LRC) by Southern Cameroonians as at November, 2017, was still at a crisis stage and not a conflict. He posited that, for the “Anglophone” crisis to transition into an “Anglophone” conflict and get the attention of the UN Security Council, certain things were required, including a critical number of battle deaths on both sides, and must be recorded within a year.

Since the presentation of that argument by General Ivo, a lot of genocidal events by the colonial regime have happened in Ambazonia that have not only led to the death of many innocent citizens, but a large number of the colonial forces have also been brought down by restoration forces in acts of self-defense. Though the colonial regime has always hide the number of its casualties, that known to the public is more than 32 colonial soldiers dead, which is above the minimum number of 25 soldiers for crisis to be classified as a conflict in line with the UCDP.

The recent letter from US Congress Man, Joseph P. Kennedy III to Secretary Tillerson of the US State Department, confirms the transformation of the revolution from a crisis to a conflict. For the first time in history of the fight for the freedom of Southern Cameroons/ Ambazonia, the crisis is officially classified as a CONFLICT within the US political space.

According to the Congressman, the State Department should encourage the government of LRC “to comply with its obligations under international law to help advanced constructive dialogue between both sides in the ongoing CONFLICT” “ I call on you as Secretary of State, to urge the Government of Cameroon to respect the rights of the Anglophone people and all the country’s citizens, consistent with its international obligations and commitments, and to help facilitate dialogue in an effort to secure a peaceful resolution to this CONFLICT” the Congressman added.
With this new twist in the revolution, it is now expected that the next statement from international organizations, especially the UN and other governments will concur with the Congressman in referring to the present situation as a CONFLICT. On these basis, General Ivo has further predicted four things that may happen in line with this:

“1. Expect any peace-keeping mandate to be passed on Cameroon anytime this year if the conflict spirals further to a war stage.
2. We still have to round up the deaths of the terrorists to 1000 before it will be classified as a war.
3. Expect a UN resolution to be passed or an AU security meeting on Cameroon.
4. Anglophone Cameroon will now be considered an “ungoverned space,” in Professor David Lake’s concept. And this means international regimes would have the legitimate right to move in and maintain the rule of law.”

The determination of Ambazonians to be free is still very high. Even the colonial regime knows that Ambalanders are not giving up anytime soon. Not when many families have paid the ultimate price of freedom. It is now left for every Ambalander hungry for freedom to effectively collaborate with the revolutionary leadership to increase the ground actions to make homeland ungovernable and push diplomacy faster. The colonial regime has taken delight in the execution of innocent citizens and so no Ambazonian is left out in this struggle for freedom at this point in time. Until the homeland is free, let the revolution escalate.

James Agbor, BaretaNews Political Analyst.