Paul Biya’s Departure and Negotiations between the Two Cameroons
A preliminary Analysis
By Ray Baba
October 8, 2018.
There has been a lot of ink flowing within the last 24 hrs following the elections that took place in neighboring LRC yesterday October 7th.
One particular point of discussion among Ambazonians on social media was with regards to the congratulatory message sent by the Interim government to Prof. Maurice Kamto, the preliminary incumbent president of LRC. Some have said it was too early to do so because he was not yet confirmed and it will put us in a bad position if Biya is proclaimed the winner.
Others insinuated that Biya will not leave power, just to prove to Camerounese that he is the lion man of Etoudi who has vowed to combat Ambazonian “terrorists” and Boko Haram, through phone and Skype conference calls from his residence in Switzerland.
While these fears and worries may or may not be justified, as a political observer and analyst, I can authoritatively state here that Paul Biya Mbi Mvondo the former king of LRC will not be in Etoudi come November 2018.
First of all, Maurice Kamto and Muna are two renown international lawyers who know the law and have connections in very high places. They could not come out strongly to make such declarations at the press conference if they did not have all the electoral statistics to justify their victory. They are in possession of materials to back their proclamation , reasons why Kamto spoke confidently. Remember, it is their credibility that is at stake.
As far as Biya’s departure is concerned, that point is non debatable.
Biya is under tremendous international pressure as we speak. He is receiving phone calls from different World leaders, asking him to let go of power. Even Emmanuel Macron is busy on the phone with other world leaders, asking him to allow change to happen in CameroUN- an extended province of Metropolitan France.
As a matter of fact, Prof. Kamto will be getting phones calls either from the French Embassy in Yaounde or directly from Paris. Paris will be seeking to find out Kamto’s position vis-a-vis French economic interests and investments in CameroUN. Once France is assured of the protection of their interests, they will push Biya out themselves after using him for 36 years. If their interest is not secured, France will push Biya to resist change and a civil war will begin in LRC. There is no third option. France does not care if the entire CameroUN goes in flames, as long as they can protect their economic interests. That is what they do.
However, the chances of Biya accepting defeat and leaving power are higher than the chances of him staying in power.
If Biya stays in power through manipulation, there will be a mass protest in LRC and guns will start sounding in that part of Central Africa.
Biya is not ready to face the fury of the Bamilekes ( the descendants of Um Nyobe and Ernest Ouandie) who still live with the scarce of 1955-1970’s. Biya is not ready for that.
Biya does not want, and cannot afford a war on three fronts – namely Boko Haram in the North, Southern Cameroons in the West of the Mungo and another in the heartbeats of LRC cities of Yaounde-Douala-Dshang (Kamto’s region of origin).
Thanks to social media, the International Community can see the irregularities at different polling stations. They know the regime’s results will be doctored, hence , not credible. The game is sealed. Therefore, congratulatory messages are welcomed.
What we, as Ambazonians need to do at this point is to prepare our team of negotiators, because Negotiations will be taking place very soon. The Interim Government needs to start selecting the list of accredited and knowledgeable legal and civil society experts both Ambazonians and Foreigners, as well as approach the US government for support in the process. Unlike our foster mother – the United Kingdom who abandoned us when we needed her the most, the United States government has been very supportive of our cause.
We cannot and should not wait for the last minute to begin searching for those who will represent Southern Cameroonian/Ambazonians at the negotiation table.
We must be prepared in advance and ready to grab our independence once and for all.
Let us not repeat the mistakes of our forefathers Foncha-Endeley at the Foumban conference.
Long Live Ambazonia
In God We Trust
Activist, political Analyst