The survey was conducted from September 7-8 with a 95% confidence interval and a 3.5% margin of error.
It should be recalled that for the past two decades, Florida which is a swing state has consistently been a competitive state both in its federal and statewide elections, and this year will be no different. This poll was recently conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling to gauge voter attitudes about the Presidential race.
Currently, Donald Trump has a 46-42% lead (which is almost identical to the July poll) over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race, while 4% support third party candidates, and 8% are undecided. There are four facets to Donald Trump’s lead:
(1) Partisan – Republican voters favor Trump by a 76-14% margin, and this solid support is augmented with 53-34% support from white Independents;
(2) Geographic – Florida’s geographic regions are fairly predictable in their partisan voting patterns, and in this poll, overall geographic patterns of support are similar to those of 2012, with one exception: Mitt Romney only carried Central Florida 50-49%, while Trump has a 46-40% lead over Clinton in this crucial region (also known as “the I-4 corridor”) of the state;
(3) Ethnic – While polls have shown that Trump is weak among Hispanic voters, the reality is more complicated in Florida, where the partisan breakdown of likely Hispanic voters is 39-31% Democratic/Republican (30% are not affiliated with the two major parties). Those of Hispanic origin in South Florida (particularly Miami-Dade) are historically Republican, while the growing Hispanic population in Central Florida is Democratic, but not unanimously nor consistently so. In this poll, Clinton has a narrow 44-42% lead over Trump among this demographic, largely due to Donald Trump’s having a 74-11% lead among Hispanic Republicans; and
(4) Gender – there is currently a nine-point gender gap, as men favor Trump 48-39%, while women are tied 44-44%. What will keep the race in Florida competitive is that Hillary Clinton’s Democratic voter base is solidly behind her as well, with an 81-6% lead among blacks, a 68-17% lead among Democrats (66-23% among white Democrats), and a 55-35% lead in South Florida, which voted 62-37% for Obama in 2012.
However, she has to improve upon her showing among Central Florida voters, white Independents, women, and Hispanics if she wants to carry the state in November. Polling conducted nationally seems to indicate a correlation between Hillary Clinton’s strength and President Obama’s job approval rating. A similar dynamic is evident in Florida, as President Obama has a 50-42% disapproval rating. Those who approve of Obama’s performance favor Clinton over Trump 89-2%, while those disapproving of Obama’s job performance favor Trump 85-5% over Clinton (those undecided about Obama’s performance are tied 26-26%).
Given the controversy that has been generated from Donald Trump’s immigration statements, JMC Analytics and Polling tested voter opinion of his immigration plan, and found that Floridians narrowly (by a 42-40% plurality) approved, although there was considerable racial and partisan variation, with Republicans strongly in favor 62- 20%, white Democrats and blacks strongly opposed, and Hispanics were evenly divided (40-39% in favor).
While the Presidential race hasn’t changed much since the last poll, the Senate race (now that both parties have selected their nominees) has tightened, and while Senator Rubio leads in the polls, it’s only a five-point lead, and 15% are undecided. Furthermore, he has weak re-elect numbers, with only 40% wanting to re-elect him, 42% against re-electing him, and 18% undecided (among Republicans, his re-elect numbers are 65-22%, while white Independents are 49-35% AGAINST re-electing him).
In conclusion, both the Presidential and U.S. Senate contests are likely to go down to the wire
JMC analytics, USA
