By Mark Bareta | Opinion
Mr Joseph Dion Ngute, Prime Minister of Cameroun and a son of Southern Cameroons, the message I take from this year’s October 1 commemorations is straightforward: the Ambazonia question will not resolve itself naturally.
To please your masters in Yaoundé, you should avoid statements that dismiss the depth of this struggle. As we say, eat your garri quietly. A political conviction does not disappear because an official predicts its expiry.
The videos circulating since October 1, together with the activities and expressions of solidarity being shared, challenge the argument that exhaustion alone will settle this conflict. They do not tell us everything about conditions across Southern Cameroons. But neither should they be dismissed because they contradict a reassuring official narrative.
Here are the lessons I draw from October 1.
1. Waiting is not a solution
I reject the suggestion attributed to you that the crisis will die a natural death within another ten to fifteen years. Extending that prediction to thirty years would not make it a peace policy.
Time cannot answer the political questions that brought people into this struggle. Those questions require direct engagement, difficult decisions and negotiations.
2. A prolonged conflict carries grievances into another generation
The young people living through this conflict today are not the same age they were when it began. Children have grown up amid bereavement, displacement and fear.
Accounts of children who lost parents and later joined armed groups require individual verification. But the wider danger is clear: leaving a conflict unresolved risks passing its grievances from parents to children.
That should be a warning to political leaders, not a reason to wait longer. Our children deserve a future beyond war.
3. Ambazonia is an idea that cannot be measured by DDR admissions
To me, Ambazonia is a spirit. We believe it is God-ordained. That is an expression of our conviction, not something an administrative programme can measure.
Individuals may enter disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration centres. Others may withdraw from activism or change their political position. Their decisions do not establish that everyone else has abandoned the aspiration to independence.
Leaving an armed group and resolving a political dispute are different things.
4. The aspiration to independence remains
My reading of October 1 is that attachment to Ambazonia remains strong among those participating in its commemorations. Expressions of support for fighters also remain part of that political reality.
No collection of videos can establish what every Southern Cameroonian believes. But the government cannot reasonably treat the independence aspiration as irrelevant simply because it rejects it.
People’s political convictions must be addressed through a process in which they can speak freely and without fear.
5. Reports of ghost towns deserve more than convenient explanations
Reports and images of quiet streets in Victoria, Buea and elsewhere have been interpreted by supporters as evidence that people acted without waiting for fresh instructions.
Empty streets alone cannot establish motive. Political solidarity, fear and security concerns can produce similar scenes.
Nevertheless, the government should ask why normal public life remains so vulnerable after years of promises. Declaring that the crisis is fading does not explain the choices people feel compelled to make.
6. Ground Zero has its own political agency
The foundation of this struggle has already been laid. Southern Cameroonians living through the conflict are not simply waiting for diaspora activists to tell them what to think.
They have their own experiences, grievances, relationships and expectations. Any approach that reduces the entire conflict to instructions from abroad misunderstands the people on the ground.
Their voices must be heard directly.
7. Yesterday’s assumptions cannot explain today’s conflict
The videos being shared suggest changes in the way some Ambazonia Forces organise and present themselves. They should not be treated as independently verified evidence of military strength, numbers or territorial control.
My political point is that the government cannot keep relying on an unchanged assessment of a conflict that has continued for years.
Nor should anyone mistake adaptation by armed groups for a reason to prolong the war. It makes a credible route out of it more urgent.
8. Claims that the conflict is nearly over require evidence
The narrative that Ambazonia Forces have been reduced to an insignificant presence should be tested against verifiable conditions, not repeated as reassurance.
Likewise, reported measures to protect state institutions do not, on their own, establish the size or capabilities of armed groups. They do raise a reasonable question about the gap between official confidence and continuing security concerns.
The public deserves an honest assessment.
9. The diaspora has not disappeared
Disagreements, pressure and personal attacks have affected diaspora activism. They have not erased the commitment of those who continue to organise, commemorate and speak about Southern Cameroons.
October 1 remains an occasion for that commitment to be expressed.
Our responsibility is to turn it towards constructive political work: supporting affected families, protecting space for peaceful expression and insisting on a credible negotiating process.
10. The political question will return to the negotiating table
Whether Cameroun’s government welcomes it or not, I remain convinced that representatives of both sides will eventually have to negotiate the future relationship between Cameroun and Southern Cameroons.
Such a process needs credible representation, agreed mediation and protection for participants. It must also give affected communities a meaningful voice.
The alternative is to keep asking families to endure a conflict while officials wait for convictions to disappear.
Mr Prime Minister, October 1 should prompt reflection. You do not have to share our belief in Ambazonia to recognise that it cannot be answered by predictions of exhaustion.
Protect civilians. Create conditions for a ceasefire. Bring credible representatives to the table and confront the political dispute.
The revolution will not resolve itself naturally. A negotiated political settlement requires leaders willing to act.
