Almost all crisis have an identical path: First, there is a situation of injustice. A group gets disgruntled. Mutual trust is lost. Dialogue fails. An armed conflict follows. Atrocities are committed. The International community intervenes. Dialogue resumes. Some form of agreement is reached. The crisis between La Republique du Cameroon and Southern Cameroons is following this path. It is gradually becoming crystal clear that the crisis is at the stage where dialogue fails. With an armed conflict being the next inevitable stage, while supporters of dialogue hang on to last efforts, preparations for the next stage of the journey are gathering momentum in what I would like to call “Symptoms of War.”
1. The resolve of the two parties: This is usually the first symptom of war visible within the ranks of each camp in the crisis. La Republique is determined to crush the uprising by all means possible in what they refer to as “l’ordre régnera par tous les moyens.” A repressive slogan, which translates, “Order will reign by all means.” “Le Cameroun est un et indivisible.” “Meaning, Cameroon is one and indivisible.” On the other hand fighters for the freedom of Southern Cameroons stick with their own slogans such as: “We are two distinct countries.” “Southern Cameroons must be free.” There is very little room for dialogue in such opposing slogans. An armed conflict is almost inevitable.
2. An upcoming date is at stake: Conflicts usually escalate on a given date or deadline which is usually of symbolic importance to one or both parties in the conflict. In the case of this conflict, that date is October 1st which is the legitimate date of the independence of Southern Cameroons from the United Nations. While La Republique du Cameroun tries to illegalize the celebration of this date, Southern Cameroonians try to ensure the survival of the historical significance of the date. So there has to be an armed conflict.
3. So much has been put in that turning back is no longer an option: There is a time in business when you put in so much that the only option you want is to see things through. Such is the case of the current crisis between La Republique du Cameroun and Southern Cameroons. Both camps have invested so much in time, money, efforts, materials and human resources that giving up is the last thing to think about. If war is the way forward, so be it.
4. Media credibility loss and warfare: Many wars fought on the ground started long ago on the media. Unbiased media reports are very rare during conflicts. Show me a report and I will tell you which side that media belongs to. Such is the case right now regarding the conflict between La Republique du Cameroun and Southern Cameroons. While the CRTV leads a group of media that propagates La Republique du Cameroun as the good side and Southern Cameroons as the bad side, SCBC TV leads the opposing group of media that shows Southern Cameroons as the good side with the right cause and La Republique du Cameroun as the bad side. This divide is seen even in renowned international media. This is the moment you know all hopes for dialogue have been lost since it is hard to
trust any thing dished out to you by any media. The truth we usually get from the media can now be found only on the battlefield it seems.
5. The duplicity of the church: Like the media discussed above, another symptom of war in a given area is when the church starts double-dealing or becoming biased. The duplicity of the church so far has been discrediting the high esteem the masses have for the almighty, whom they consider to be their savior. The masses are losing faith seeing the church working hand in gloves with their oppressors. On the other hand, those who hold power in both camps of the conflict are threatening to judge and punish any church leaders who don’t preach their agenda. When that trust in the church is lost, the path to war gets smoother.
6. The lukewarm attitude of the international community: The biggest paradoxical practice by the international community is “cure is better than prevention.” Yes, the opposite of what we usually say. International organizations like The United Nations, The African Union, The European Union, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, etc. during an escalating conflict like this one do no more than write reports and make random declarations on the media. The recurrent sentence I hate the most is “We are following the situation very closely…” This is the equivalent of “I am following you very closely as you inch towards doom.” Sadly, that’s what the international community does when a region of the world is about to catch the killer disease of war. Their cure comes in when full war is engaged, lives of innocent citizens are lost, starvation and famine set in, genocide breaks out, epidemics break out, etc. So since serious intervention only comes after atrocities are committed, conflicts quickly go down that path to get the intervention they badly need. La Republique du Cameroun and Southern Cameroons look set to head down that path since the conflict has been there for five decades and received nothing but lukewarm reactions from the international community.
7. The mobilization of armed forces: It is usually one of the last symptoms before the war breaks out. Both sides begin to mobilize forces and position arsenals. La Republique has deployed elite combat soldiers from the rapid intervention division of its armed forces. They are currently beefing their arsenals. The Ambazonia Defense Council of Southern Cameroons through a communiqué dated September 9th 2017 has declared war and readiness to fight back against the forces of La Repubique du Cameroun. Hence, the battle line has been drawn. It is only a matter of time and strategy before the first alarum. The above illustrate how close two regions in a world so full of preachers of peace and truth are so close to self-destruction because of lies, greed, hypocrisy, double-dealing and international relations based on nothing but self-interest. A few months or years down this path we are set to follow, we will all pretend to be sorry and weep more than the bereaved.
Ndoh Emmanuel
BaretaNews Contributor
12 comments
Excellent analysis, how do we break this impasse.
We should be very careful so that larepublique dooes not carry these acts themselves and point the finger at us.
ONLY our special agents should handle this task, keeping in mind diplomatic ramifications. Here is what I suggest that every other Southern Cameroonian can do right now. Soft diplomatic pressure to get larepublque citizens to wake them from their stupid coma. PRINT T-SHIRTS AND BANNERS with the following: “Enemis dans la maison” “BIafrain” Anglofool”. Then show them their miseries: “The train wreck in Ebolowa” ” The murder of the Priest” “BAC CHAD” “The woman who died in the hallway of la quintini hospital with twins” “KALEZ KALEZ under Ahidjo” “The posh conditions in kondegue of his cronies” “BENKSINNERS with university degrees” ” Ghastly ACCIDENTS on horrible roads” ” Officials openly receiving bribes” etc. Please, some one add more or suggest how we print these shirts and banners.France is the major player, we must be very careful. Geographically we are not like SOUTH Sudan or South Africa, they had countries all around them, where they could retreat regroup and plan. We only have Nigeria or the Atlantic. I don’t trust Nigeria, they will sell us out, they have french businesses. Let no hot heads derail our successes. We need major players to start a war, which could be problematic in the future. Let’s wait for the UN. In the mean time, let’s deal la republique more fatal wounds like GHOST TOWNS: NO SCHOOLS: NO TAXES: NO FOOD EXPORTS TO larepublique: ENCOURAGE those francophones who genuinely support us: BROADCAST in FRENCH TO them how their lives are miserable.: NOT ALL beti, etun, ewondo, bulu, douala, nordist, bassa, bamoun are benefitting from the looting: THEY ARE TRAUMATIZED AND SCARED: ENCOURAGE THEM TO STAND UP AND FIGHT: This will make the biya Mafia crumble from all fronts (politically, diplomatically and financially without firing a bullet.France does not have to be our enemy, she is also looking to feed her people. Let’s talk to them and let them know it will be in their best interest to do business with a more educated, rich and educated Southern Cameroon.
Who benefit from the current system? ans them
Has the majority been doing what the minority is doing? Ans No. If they did biya and co would be history.
Do you tell a hungry man to go and get some food? Ans No. We are not going wait for them to join us.
No matter what stage we go into, LRC can’t point any fingers for the base of the everything is their annexation, colonization of our territory period. Our argument is never ever going to change be it war or peace.
I’m not scare also if war breaks our, all we need to wipe them our are snipers, no direct combat. We have the home advantage, all their heavy bulky military machines are of no use when we start hunting them down with snipers one by one like ghost from now where.
Those who want to go to school should go to school, when war comes, there will be no way to work.
Good article.
War is the only answer.
Warfare is warfare and strategy is the key. The size of an army matters but strategy matters the most. It is a typical David Vs Goliath situation. All the help the Ambazonia side is waiting for can not come in unless the conflict takes to a new level so yes. That’s the way forward.
Excellent Article,
Thank you my brother for such an objective analysis of the situation on the ground. Many of us were in Nigeria during the Bakassi crises when it seemed inevitable that war was going to happen. Both countries had deployed armies and were ready for hostilities. Many of us resorted to praying knowing that those pushing for the arms conflict in Abuja and Yaounde had very little to lose except that their eyes were set on the black gold in the region. Somehow Cameroon understood that they did not have the capabilities to confront almighty Nigeria (even with the help of France). Clearly disadvantaged, they chose what is now commonly called “the force of argument rather than the argument of force” which eventually gave them the victory without hostilities. I think that was a great strategy. To tell you the truth, if you were Cameroonian in Nigeria at the time, you were afraid for your safety because in war, everyone is a suspect. A lesson from history is the case of the Japanese leaving in America during word war II – they were all rounded up and put in camps because they were all suspects. I still remember at my school when I was asked during class what my take was. I couldn’t pretend not to know what was going on. I simply stated that Bakassi neither belonged to Nigeria nor Cameroon – that innocents, who were the true owners of the piece of land were going to die in a war. Traveling in East Cameroon recently, I noticed how many West Cameroonians live and work there. Remote villages that were completely francophone in the 80s have anglophones everywhere. These our brothers and sisters (who are in the millions) will be put in very horrible circumstances in a war. Someone has noted that there are more of us among them than they are among us. That is why we need to be careful about inciting violence. I know all of our heroes in this struggle have proclaimed that this is not a fight between Anglophones and Francophones. However, when war breaks out, the people who will be dying will be Anglophones and Francophones – let’s not hide our heads in the sand and deny this reality. What will you tell a mother, brother, sister, uncle, aunt in Ebolowa or Kouseri who looses a Gendarme/army son killed by Southern Cameroonians? If they decide to retaliate on Southern Cameroonians living in their neighborhood, will we blame them? If we were in their shoes, will we retaliate?
The current crises between LRC vs Southern Cameroon/Ambazonia is very skewed as the later does not have the war machinery to confront the former. I think the smart thing to do is to build up the tension (as is currently the situation) and not go to war but use LRC strategy of “force of argument” to proceed. (I just learned that they was some explosion in Bamenda today, I hope it is not true). When I listened to the Interview by chairman Julius Sisiku Ayuk Tabe from the Uk two days ago, I was relieved to know that they still believe that the struggle should be nonviolent. I pray the struggle (which I believe is just) should be nonviolent on the part of Southern Cameroonians. The world community can see who is the aggressor here. Legality is on our side, so no need for innocent people to die. I pray for cooler heads to prevail on both sides.
God bless your wise words and give wisdom to others!
You articulate my mind in great detail. Thanks
From these discussions I should say that Southern Cameroonians living in la republique should by now know what is at stake and evacuate IMMEDIATELY. Remember RWANDA!!! Every Ambassionian is paying the price one way or the other ( missing home, no schools, puberty, disease, accidents, poor roads) And WORST of all TOTAL HUMILIATION from these criminal, inhuman, retarded francafrique buffoons.
Jarvis, thank you for your wise words. When it comes to averting war in Bakassi,we must understand that it was President Olusegun Obasanjo who unilaterally took the decision that was very, very unpopular to many Nigerians when he said that he was not going to see Africans killing Africans for oil.
As foolish as the Biya regime was, they had already procured arms from the french leeches and the Malaysians.
Yes, war is not a walk in the park. And I hope that when you go home you take time to travel around to see the level of suffering of our people in Douala and other major cities. University graduates who have been emasculated to the point where most have lost their sense of worth. Our daughters from the universities are now selling themselves because they do not have god fathers. And who are the individuals promoting most of these deviant behaviours in our youths? It is the same cpdm praise singers from Southern Cameroon who when they return from Yaoundé go around in Southern Cameroon like demi-gods.
Some of our youths out of frustration have been forced to leave the country under questionable circumstances only to end up dead in the Sahara desert or drown in the Mediterranean sea because they want to travel to Europe. Those who are lucky to survive the ordeal of crossing the desert and the Mediterranean sea have suddenly found themselves in a hostile Europe that is waiting for them with razor shape barb wires.
At this juncture, our people are already on the ground and I do not see how they can fall any further. We are at the point of enough is enough and are we suppose to just fold our arms while our land is being militarized by this regime from LRC?
War is the answer and innocent lives have already been lost. Plenty of them and all Ambazonians. Any Ambazonian who has invested in LRC did so at their own risk and shows they are either stupid, did not know or care about their history. If I was them I will start making plans to return home soonest, because, when war starts, I will not differentiate between a civilian and military la Republic citizen. A Camerounese is a camerounese, as far as war is concerned. Similarly, all camerounese citizens in country should equally start making immediate plans to sell, vacate their properties in Ambaland and get the hell out of our country with immediate effect and it does not matter what generation they came to or were born in Ambazonia (Bamileke, Bassa, Douala, Hausa, Beti, Bertoua, no exception.I hate you all an you are the ones giving us lectures about avoiding war an continuing non violence. My head!)
extremely good analysis, the church has has shocked us even more.