The Ambazonia War: The Shortcut to the Negotiation Table
Like every other war in history, it will finally end with a truce no matter how long the fighting lasts. There will be some kind of negotiation at the end. There are two ways to that negotiation both camps are currently using with neither of them solid, in my opinion: One is to keep fighting until both sides are exhausted and call for negotiations themselves and the second is to keep fighting until a third party imposes a ceasefire on the two camps. That third party could be some powerful international organization or country.
Option one is the option we are currently engaged in without any idea of how long it might take to get to the end. In terms of numbers, strength, resources and skill to resist long-term battle, La Republique du Cameroun is sure to win using this option. In fact it is their preferred option because at the end of it, the conquer of the people and territory they have always wished for would have been finally accomplished once and for all. Ambazonia Restoration Forces on the other hand have a lot to lose in this option: The battlegrounds are on their territory, the fleeing population is theirs and the loss of property is theirs. Sooner or later whatever resources they have will dwindle down to nothing in a shorter time span compared to the situation in the opposite camp. This option from all analyses is not a favorable option for Ambazonia and should be strongly discouraged. Unless there is serious proof of the availability of resources necessary to support a long-term battle, this option is to say the least suicidal.
Option two is what Ambazonia pro-Independence fighters wished for from day 1 since the revolution started. They knew option one was not a favorable option for them and so went straight for option two with the hope that some third party intervention could bring them full victory or at least some partial victory. They were counting on the solidity of the truth of the arguments backing their cause. Unfortunately, they learnt soon that the world was not one governed by truth and fair play as they had thought. International organizations like The United Nations, The African Union, and The Commonwealth of Nations have sympathized with the cause but shown how far they can go in this kind of crisis. Powerful countries around the world that know the origin and history of the crisis very well have also sympathized with the cause but shown that they have more to benefit from the current La Republique du Cameroon than from Ambazonia. These two facts point to the bitter conclusion that third party serious intervention to broker peace might only come if the interests of those third parties in the region are threatened. Other than that, the current crisis even though openly condemned by everyone on a daily basis, might just be the beginning of new good business for the stakeholders that be. After all, the lawless state of the region now creates perfect room for crime, ruthless exploitation of the region, shady deals as well as grab-and-run practices and the longer that lasts, the more the malpractices thrive.
From the above analysis, we can all see that following option one means following the wish of La Republique du Cameroun to their victory, which is what Ambazonia Restoration Forces are doing now. Following option two means a little hope for Ambazonia if only there is some very tactful strategy put in place. That tactful strategy, far from being a soft solution or a walk in the park, is the shortest way to the negotiation table.
The bottom line of the whole war is the rich natural resources of the territory of Ambazonia. Had Ambazonia been barren land, no tricky fake union between the two countries would have ever taken place to start with. There wouldn’t be any Ambazonia war. Whatever powers profit from these resources would kill to the last insect to maintain possession over them. Forget the loss of lives on both camps everyday. Forget the abductions, kidnappings and mass arrests. They are mere drama for the distraction of the masses whereas the bottom line remains untouched. The exploitation of profitable resources continues to belong to those who have owned them for decades. The day this source of profits and livelihood is hit, negotiations will take place the next day whether both camps like it or not.
So dear advocates of armed conflict, homeland defense, block-by-bock, dialogue, negotiations, ceasefire, armistice, truce or whatever you want to call it. Put in place meaningful strategies that move the revolution towards a win-win ending not strategies aimed at creating sensational news headlines and more social media heroes. No matter what you do, as long as the umbilical cord from mother Ambazonia – the breadbasket, to the baby is still connected and functioning nothing serious in the name of negotiations will take place and whatever does take place will crumble soon.
The rationale behind killing one to three armed forces from La Republique du Cameroun only to have an entire village of thousands of Ambazonians evicted into the forest, with some losing their lives in the process, others arrested and all leaving their property behind for destruction, doesn’t make a lot of sense considering the plethora of intellectuals in Ambazonia. Ambazonians can do better than that kind of thinking if they stop focusing on grandstanding and aggrandizement all over social media while misfiring in terms of strategy on ground zero. Wake up and smart up Ambazonians if the goal is really to win.
Written by
Ndoh Emmanuel
14 comments
To Mark Bareta.
What will bé the validity of acadèmic certificats acquired during this period of revolucion?
Mr. Ndoh Emmanuel,
I hope you had Mark Bareta read your article before publishing it. When this struggle started, I had a lot of respect for Mark Bareta and Akoson Pauline. When they foolishly decided to advocate for an ill conceive idea of ADF I had to conclude that at best these are naive individuals with lack of foresign and any prospective on history.
The ADF is nothing but a scam. It is a way to extort money from our vulnerable population by the same actors who have been collecting money for years in the name of the struggle but have never render any account. The real people resisting on the ground don’t talk on social media.
The strategy you outlined above-that of stopping la Republique from exploiting our resources is the only strategy that will force a solution to the crisis. Killing a few soldiers here and there will take us to nowhere. When the IMF and other international lenders don’t get paid because the timber is no longer transportated to La Republique, the oil is no longer exploited, the road from Nigeria to Kumba cannot be used again (La Republique gets about 400 millions FCFA a month from custom duties on this road) you will hear about a security council meeting to resolve the crisis. Hit and run here and there will not led to anything significant. On the contrary we run the risk of having a food crisis if people cannot farm for a long time.
The truth is that kind of strategic planning is what the IG can do. You saw some of that licked on social media after the abduction of the IG members. The Interim Government (IG) has both the legitimacy and the support of our people. We need to fund the IG will millions of dollars. A $20/month citizen levy will not cut it.
For those of you who said the IG is dormant. Why did the French, La Republique, and Nigeria conspired to abduct the IG. Because the IG was getting very close and they could not take the chance of seeing a new nation. The unfortunate part is that the IG cannot come in public and revail the details of its plans. That void is unfortunately being filled by scammers in the name of ADF.
Ambazonians, please open your eyes. The only self defense is that which involves preventing La Republique from exploiting our resources. That takes a lot of money and cannot be finance through gofundme campaign. Anyone telling you to donate a few dollars online to free homeland is a scammer. It takes more than a few dollars from each of us.
It is a revolution that took most people unawares. They can only learn from mistakes but repeating mistakes is stupid.
You are so right.
The most effective means we have to fight not only LRC but its partners supporting it all at once is disrupt the source from which they get their revenue.
Human live has no value to these creatures, but material resources are worship as God.
The best way to hurt the evil trying to eliminate one is to figure out what is the thing it takes to be the most valuable thing and then go after that.
Fully agree with you.
@ Ndoh Emmanuel, it has taken +15 months before something sensible comes out from that your block head. How many lives have been lost? How many kids have no future anymore? How many businesses have been lost? How many schools have been burnt down? How many brothers/sisters/parents are in LRC jails?
mark bareta is busy taking donations to make up for his time wasted in Europe, maybe donations have stopped flowing in that’s why you can think now. AMBAZONIA doesn’t have the resources to fight LRC, AMBAZONIA doesn’t have any international support, the abducted leaders will soon be forgotten in jail or maybe they are not even alive.
It’s never too late, it’s good you have started thinking, maybe you or someone close to you have incurred some losses too.
What do you gain from calling the writer “block head?” If you were a revolution professional you shouldn’t have waited 15months to make such a comment. I follow Ndoh Emmanuel’s articles here way back and this has been said before repeatedly. The most recent example is at this link and in many other articles https://www.bareta.news/changing-war-game-ten-open-tactics-warriors/
@Abducted This one he wrote way before the situation became what it is now.
https://www.bareta.news/dialogue-baretanews-analysis/
@Ndoh Emmanuel this is the best analysis I read since this struggle started. Great job, at least someone has a brain.
@Abducted, my brother that is the same thing I have been saying from day one. I am at least happy that Mark is realizing that, we the people are not stupid and that he cannot lie to us indefinitely. Even option two is not viable with the current situation, we lost all leverages we have before of killings. The world view us now as another terrorist organization. I agreed with our SDF chairman, that people doing all the killings are not from NW or SW, rather those who want to make us look bad. Please let us go back to the basic of federalism and we will see how the entire country will rally behind us. With the current situation, We are the one suffering.
The kidnapping of the DO of Batibo makes the regime very nervous. That is one of their weak points. But killing gendarms or soldiers is not the way forward. We need to attack the administration instead. DOs and SDOs should not feel safe in Ambaland anymore. As I said it before alienate and attack so called “elites”. Those elevated slaves are the worst. Moreover disrupt the timber exploitation. No timber shall leave Ambazonia anymore. Oil installations such as pipelines are very important for the regime. The administration and the economy (cash crops,timber and oil) are the weak points and need to be attacked.
Actually sabotaging those resources from flowing out from Ambazonia is not easy too. It requires much planning by good strategists
Sure Pa Dee. Nobody thinks the task is easy. Concerning the timber.
1. Locate places of timber extraction.
2. Attack the lorries carrying the timber out.